If I am wrong about the low not being in, there is a way I can count the S&P 500 entirely bullishly, and I’ll present that, too. I wish i didn’t have to do this—I wish I completely knew where we were headed from here with a high degree of confidence. But, we can count the cash session as an impulse, and if the low is in, I would expect us to rush up in a 3rd wave soon, closing all those gaps in a matter of days.
Now, for the last weeks, I have been looking for a major low. I have so far been unimpressed by the quality of this rally. It feels very lethargic to me. And so, given that information, I have become open to seeing lower lows. However, that AAII survey came out again, and boy, I just can’t believe how terrible it is again. I tend to believe those kinds of results should coincide more closely with major lows, and so I need to remain open to bullish views such as the one above.
If we do rally (either for the counts here) or like this above, the quality, height and duration of that rally should help us to make a decision (I hope). If we stall in the 380s, I would be inclined to think we go lower again; if we power through to 400, I would take that to be a 3rd wave of a larger impulse and I would be more inclined to think a low might be in after all.
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