Just Talking Out Loud About Some Evidence: A Glance at $M, $BABA, and $META

I track a whole bunch of individual names, and I had to put some of that on hold because some stocks broke to new lows invalidating the counts I had been carrying. Names like Amazon, Adobe, even Facebook all made new lows and I have to wait to look for a new impulse wave before I can give a confident count on those.

But, I find it interesting, the selection of stocks that are still, wave by wave, hitting the right targets to justify bullish counts still (Alibaba, Macy’s, even Coinbase, and others).

I will show a few.


Macy’s, though deep for a “2,” pulled back just when I was expecting to to:

M

And the impulse wave going up looks very good. If we’re bullish this should show itself with a huge rally in the coming weeks. But, it will tell me a lot if it (like the some of the others) breaks the prior low.


Alibaba, same thing. I got that nice 3rd wave punch I was looking for, and then it’s immediately given me what looks very much like a triangle 4th wave (consistent with the triangle-like structures we’re in everywhere else on the US indices).

BABA

So, if this keeps grinding up and to the right giving us the next 4-5-4-5s, then it’s almost certainly a large impulse wave and it is bullish.


But others, like Meta (I’ll never get used to saying that lol), broke down. I originally counted the low in at my green arrow, and had been counting it up from there, but it lost that and I have to start again on this one.

However, can it be close? It’s possible. I’m still looking for a “2” of huge degree (from its inception).

FB

So, on this, if the “C” of yellow “2” is an ending diagonal (the red structure), this is a good spot as we’re at the 61.8% retracement of the advance from its inception to its all-time high. I will need to wait to see a 5-wave structure off a low to confirm.


Others still, like Amazon, we have already discussed, and it’s a super funky pattern that holds risk. I’ve seen enough head and shoulders patterns blow up in people’s faces to not trust it until it actually breaks down, but it, to, also needs a good impulse wave up to look better.


Other things like some world indices such as the $DAX (discussed here) and the Aussie $XJO (discussed here) got annihilated when that bad inflation print came out. So, it is a mixed bag. If the stocks that are counting well and have lows in May hold up and some of these others give some initial rallies, things will look good. Given that so many of the stocks that hit new lows (taking US indices with them to new lows) were big tech, it continues to make me believe this huge structure we’re in is a tech rotation primarily.

If it is, great, that still doesn’t tell me when it’s over, but I hope it will be soon.


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