Micro-Count of $SPY

If we ignore the hot mess that is futures, we can focus on the cash session, which is a little easier at the moment.

Coming out of the 6/17 low, we definitely have what looks to be a leading diagonal (orange 1). And we seem to be in a triangle now, so perhaps that is (orange) 4, giving us a lotal 5-wave structure unfolding like this:


Now that’s all fun and games, but the real question is, “What comes next?” and that’s the part I’m stuck on.

If 6/17 was the bottom, then the orange 5 up there will we a “1” of a higher degree (note: orange 5 doesn’t have to go as high as I’ve placed it, its only requirement is to take out the high of orange 3), where we would expect a bigger pullback for blue 2, before rocket emojis, like this:


On the other hand, if 6/17 wasn’t THE low, then this could be first of a 3-wave move, before the whole thing fails and we go down to take out the 6/17 low, like this:


Or, this could be a 3-wave completing already, such as this:


And unfortunately I don’t have a great way to pick from these at the moment. Sentiment is screaming up up and only up. But with unresolved things such as the $VIX wedge, I can also see us needing another flush, too.

Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.

One thought on “Micro-Count of $SPY”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *