Micro-Count of $SPY

If we ignore the hot mess that is futures, we can focus on the cash session, which is a little easier at the moment.

Coming out of the 6/17 low, we definitely have what looks to be a leading diagonal (orange 1). And we seem to be in a triangle now, so perhaps that is (orange) 4, giving us a lotal 5-wave structure unfolding like this:

SPY

Now that’s all fun and games, but the real question is, “What comes next?” and that’s the part I’m stuck on.

If 6/17 was the bottom, then the orange 5 up there will we a “1” of a higher degree (note: orange 5 doesn’t have to go as high as I’ve placed it, its only requirement is to take out the high of orange 3), where we would expect a bigger pullback for blue 2, before rocket emojis, like this:

SPY

On the other hand, if 6/17 wasn’t THE low, then this could be first of a 3-wave move, before the whole thing fails and we go down to take out the 6/17 low, like this:

SPY

Or, this could be a 3-wave completing already, such as this:

SPY

And unfortunately I don’t have a great way to pick from these at the moment. Sentiment is screaming up up and only up. But with unresolved things such as the $VIX wedge, I can also see us needing another flush, too.


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