What to Make of the Local price Action

I don’t have much I can add at the moment for the very short-term. I will list a few thoughts:

1. The price action in the green funnel does not look to me to be a good way for the market to come out of a major low. It’s funky. It feels “countertrend” to me, meaning, it feels “corrective,” meaning I am inclined to believe this rally may fail.
2. That said, it’s also not clear to me where it will fail. I have no confident way to count it at this time and need to see more structure before I can do so in a way that isn’t just slapping some labels on it.
3. It is possible that it fails at the red trend line (at which it has before).
4. Or even higher at 3856, at which it has also failed before (green arrow).
5. Or even at the full 50-61.8% retracement of the last decline (orange box).

I wish I had a clearer way I could count this.