I don’t have much I can add at the moment for the very short-term. I will list a few thoughts:
- The price action in the green funnel does not look to me to be a good way for the market to come out of a major low. It’s funky. It feels “countertrend” to me, meaning, it feels “corrective,” meaning I am inclined to believe this rally may fail.
- That said, it’s also not clear to me where it will fail. I have no confident way to count it at this time and need to see more structure before I can do so in a way that isn’t just slapping some labels on it.
- It is possible that it fails at the red trend line (at which it has before).
- Or even higher at 3856, at which it has also failed before (green arrow).
- Or even at the full 50-61.8% retracement of the last decline (orange box).
I wish I had a clearer way I could count this.
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