I’m sorry to be that guy who complained about the need for a rally, who then folded like a wet napkin the moment he got it, but I’m not feeling good about the structures.
The Naz has made a sort of “funnel,” with what looks like a triangle right in the middle of it (we’ve discussed that shape elsewhere already). I’m not happy to see a triangle (if that’s what it is) that sits “low.” It’s good if, like my crayon drawing on the right, it sits “high” after a vertical rally. But when they sit low like this, smashed in with the waves that precede them, they’re more likely to be “B-Waves” instead of “4th Waves,” making this structure more likely to be countertrend rather than impulsive (meaning the trend is still “down.”)
If it is countertrend, of course it can still go higher, but, if I had to place probabilities, I lean to the view that this rally will fail.
Now, if things develop and we keep going up and the cash sessions (which lack some of the defects of the futures charts) look very good, I may revert and become more bullish again. But until them, I am very cautious here for the time being.
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