Update on the Two Thoughts From Yesterday

No real changes to the thoughts expressed here. On the one hand, if this is a countertrend rally only, then it should be a 3-wave move. This scenario counts better on futures because of that holiday drift you guys already know I don’t like.

But, if yesterday was the triangle “B-Wave,” then we’re in the “C” now. Equal legs is noted on the chart (the orange line), but if this is a 2, it can also extend to the 50-61.8% retracement of the last decline, going to the orange box. Note that equal legs corresponds to the futures gap. So if that get hard-rejected, we may get our answer there.

ES

And on the other hand if we’re genuinely bullish, this leg should go past equality and higher perhaps to the orange box above. And from there it should consolidate and give another rally after that.

SPY

It feels like this might have some legs, but let’s see what happens.


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