And Let’s Review the Bullish Case, Just in Case

The bearish view presented this morning still looks good. That said, we’re now “in between” both prior highs and lows, and the bulls can still pull a rabbit out of their hats here if they need to. I don’t think it’s as probable, but I also cannot rule it out.

The bullish view has the cash session probably finishing a 1-2 (of blue degree), with the “2” being an expanded flat, like this:

SPY

If that turns out to be right, we should get a very big rally to the orange box above us. I cannot count the futures session in this way (as an impulse) easily at all, but since I can count the cash session as an impulse (a bit funky, but possible), we should at least acknowledge that this can happen.

The only other thing I have in support of this is my previous proposal of an “accumulation.” So long as 3808 holds (the lower “Support Line”), this pullback would normally be expected. But, if we lose that, I would say this schematic is not the appropriate way to interpret the S&P 500.

ES

So, we need to go lower to help to validate the bearish view, and we need to go higher to validate the bullish view. Both remain possible here, though I do favor the bearish interpretation to some degree at this time.


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