Update on $ES

The rally from mid June forward (green arrow) continues to look “corrective” to me at this time. If it is, we have retraced to an appropriate level for it to be complete.

If it is complete, we may head down to challenge the lows. I have drawn the red structure (ending diagonal) on the chart as a hypothesis only. I speculate about that because of my reluctance to believe (so far) that we’re in that much trouble. So, let’s just see how things progress from here. My earlier versions of the red wedge were steeper, and that’s still on the table, as is the possibility that we’re in something worse than a diagonal. But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves yet. I think a challenge of the June low is a sensible target. I think the 250-week EMA is another sensible (eventual) target as well (though we may have a rally for pink 4 in between here and there).


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