$NQ Gives Us a Different Picture

Unlike the S&P futures (which only has the look of a 3-wave decline—which is why I labelled it as an orange “A” here), the Nasdaq 100 futures lacks that defect, as it made a lower high on 6/28 (green arrow in the chart below), which gives us a full 5-wave decline (instead of only 3).

That should be an impulse wave of some kind, and I have labelled it as green “1” below.

Now, it it is possible that green “2” is an expanded flat, with “2” coming back to revisit the “4” of the prior (blue) degree, which is common:


If that’s the case, then today’s short covering rally will be followed soon by a precipitous decline.

However, it is also possible that green “2” becomes something larger, like this:


I think the first count “looks” better, but I can’t rule the second one out. And of course it’s also possible that I’m completely wrong here, in some fundamental way. This is, after all, a seasonally very bullish week. So, let’s see what happens. It’s possible that the rally will fail soon though.

Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *