Just noting a few things here. No firm conclusions.
We have broken above the red trend line and we’re back out of “technical bear market” territory. If we are destined to continue going up for a few days, let’s observe the green bear flag structure.
However, a little poke above that trend line like this is perhaps equally as good a setup for a bull trap. As we need at least another whole day above that. So, the Fed did not sound too dovish from what I saw, and this could be a fake out.
And looking at futures, the triangle I discussed this morning is still valid here:
So, it’s still possible to drop as well straight from here.
I wish I could say, “we’re going to do that” and to be right about it. But, I have both longs and shorts and will hope to gain further clarity over the coming days. Both a run to the parallel rail on cash and the triangle on futures look like promising alternatives.
I went in to today somewhat bearish; then became agnostic going into the statement; and now, I am leaning a bit more bearish just given the firmness of the Fed’s resolve in the language that I saw going around Twitter (I haven’t read the statement myself yet).
So, are we going to go up or down next? I don’t know, but this could absolutely be a nice bull trap. This pump feels a bit lethargic, tbh (at least so far), and PCR is falling somewhat dramatically. So, who knows. Let’s see what happens.