Since FOMC Can Be So Damned Unpredictable, I Will Also Remind Us of This

I do expect this rally off the 6/17 low to eventually fail, given the nature of the structure of its advance (it looks corrective in nature). What I do not know is whether it will fail sooner or later. I have discussed the “sooner” version here already. And I have also discussed the later version (here), but will review it again now.

Since we seem to be in a triangle, it’s possible that it’s a “B-Wave” facing in the other direction, too, like this:


I wish I had a really reliable way to know which of these will play out, but I do not. If the Fed comes out either dovish in speech or in deed, there’s not a lot stopping a larger rally like this from forming.

I anticipate that we will go lower, but this market does not always do as I wish.

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