A Way to Count the Cash Session Here, And Some Other Things

Given the nexus of things I try to take into account, I still can’t shake my suspicions that is a bull trap. One weird way we can also count the cash session bearishly is as follows.

The only real “impulsive” part of the decline from the 6/28 high is the “green 1” I have labelled in the chart below (green arrow). Most people see the whole decline (from the top to my “blue b”) as some kind of 3-wave structure, as they should.

However, it is possible to count the whole thing as an expanded flat, and this would be a terrific illusion for anyone looking to get long. The decline doesn’t look impulsive (but it actually would be), then we have an exit out of “technical” bear market territory, and a break of local trend (red line), and the retracement back up looks too deep for something like a “2.” BUT, if the “1” only goes to where I have it labelled, then we’re actually only at the 50-61.8% now (orange box).

In other words, there’s a lot here that a bull would want to see to feel confident, and that makes me very suspicious.

And so, if we don’t go too much higher, there are ingredients here for a reversal.

SPY

A lot of folks think there’s a big short on the market here, but I’m not too sure that there is. So, I’m not sure if we can muster a big squeeze here.

And, on the futures, as stupid as it is to continue doing this, there is little stopping us from enlarging the triangle “B-wave” some more, like this:

ES

And, finally, on the Nasdaq 100, we may only simply be retesting the parallel rail (green structure) from beneath again. And you can see the H&S here as well. None of this looks good to me structurally still. That’s my main takeaway here for the time being.

NQ


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