Just noting a technical observation on $ES. I am curious to see if this will produce a rejection or not.
The trend line comes from the COVID low through the 5/20 on linear scale:
And zoomed in:
If it does turn here, the price action locally is consistent with an ending diagonal, though sometimes these can be other structures, too.
What I don’t know is: just how many people are actually short here and just how hard can they short squeeze the market. A big unknown. I still get the impression here for the time being that even the bears are looking for higher prices from here, and so I’m not too sure just how many folks haven’t already covered. So, I won’t be surprised if we do turn sharply soon. But, I also can’t rule out higher prices before then either.
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