What Other Evidence Can We look At?

Let’s look at another thought, too. The other day, I pointed out these triangles. They looked great. Let’s review one of them ($AMC). When I made that post, we were at the tip of the red arrow. And it looked great there. We had 5 waves up for green “C.” But, we didn’t break down. However, we’re not invalidated yet, as we’re also at a great fib here. What if “C” is right here instead?


So, this is dumb, but stay with me, things are fluid right now:

  1. I went in to today expecting a drop
  2. Leading into this morning’s price action called that into some question (and we have rallied, so that’s ok)
  3. But now, I’m gaining a bit more confidence again in the bearish view because of the nature of this rally—it feels like it’s short covering already, and I’m surprised it’s not going much higher

Bitcoin still looks like shit:


Junk bonds look like shit still, too:


I am surprised that the 2018 high on the Russell (here) has held this morning. So I am tilting bearish again here for the time being. I expected a nice impulse wave today, and it’s all smashed and compressed and that changes much—for me. That initial squeeze this morning, I thought, was a “1”, and we should be flying, but we’re squashed in here and I don’t like it.

I am responding to short-term price action, and I know that’s dizzying to my readers. But, I was worried about getting smashed, but now I’m not. I now think there are more sellers here than I at first thought.

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