And One Additional SPX Technical

I have been using a count that originates on the 6/14 low because it balances well with the drop that leads to it (I’m calling that “X” in the chart below).

But, if the market is simply hellbent on closing that upper gap, it’s just a giant bear flag. And there is wave balance at that upper rail if we use the 6/17 low instead (I’m calling that “Y” in the chart below):

SPX

I have two concerns with such a structure. The first is the obviousness of it. It’ll be plain as day to all and sundry, and sometimes when they’re this obvious, they don’t work out. My second concern is the “size” of it. A bear flag should be proportional to the drop that preceded it. And this looks a bit too big in relation to the June drop. That’s not a deal breaker, it’s not too big, just big.


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