Just a Few Thoughts

Little has changed in my assessment of the markets here. It is my interpretation that the low made on 6/17 produced a rally of poor quality that is inconsistent with a major low (though clearly an intermediate low was made). I believe that we are not close enough to a Fed pivot, given their consistent language, and I believe serious geopolitical risks are present and a rapidly deteriorating economy has not been priced in.

From a technical perspective, I see several good signs that this countertrend bounce may have (finally, Jesus) completed today.

The trend line pointed out here held as resistance:

SPX

There is wave balance at today’s high, both internally and externally:

SPX

And all of this also coincides with a 61.8% retracement of the decline from the early June high:

SPX


Crypto continues to look quite grim. Bitcoin has never really left its flag:

BTC

And Ethereum, which is stronger makes matters even more bearish, as it greatly increases the probability that this rally in crypto is a two instead of a four.

It has nosed its way above its bear flag, but all it has managed to accomplish is to retest a trend line it lost some time back from beneath. The fact that this is nice and sharp (80% rally from its low) after a 5-wave decline may make this a 2.

ETH


All of these technicals still need to prove themselves by us moving lower in price, so let’s see. But, as things stand right now, I don’t see much that gives me confidence yet.


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