Just a Couple of Additional Thoughts

Given the FOMC policy statement and presser, I see no reason to interpret today’s move as anything other than an unfortunate short squeeze, with “it’s only the expected 75bps, phew!” used as the excuse. The Fed is crystal clear: they will likely continue to raise rates, which should continue to restrict liquidity. I therefore see no reason to interpret the structure on the S&P 500 as anything other than what it looks like, a big bear flag:


I was hoping it wouldn’t fill out the full parallel rails because it’s so obvious that it might do that (and fill both gaps on the cash session fully), and I don’t like very obvious targets, but that’s what it’s done, and I don’t expect this to hold up much longer. So, we have all the wave balance we need here to justify a top. Let’s see if she finally rolls over.

Literally just about everything squeezed, including crypto, but Ethereum, for example, has accomplished nothing and is only retesting this trend line once again:


I expect this will be rejected again tonight. And this time probably for good.

I don’t see any reason to be particularly bullish here.

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