$SPX Wave Balance, and Target

Given the FOMC, I feel no need to alter my interpretation here. Finding the terminus of what I believe is a bear market rally only has been been an exercise in repetition. And I’m sorry for that. We have repeatedly had wave balance at highs in this final leg up, and one of them will work. The rally is still fairly modest, traveling almost as much sideways as it is up, but it’s taking its time to roll over and that can be infuriating.

But, I see no reason to expect anything other than this to end soon, and I prefer anticipating that against the risks of attempting to long into the top of a rally that can fail dramatically. Looking at the structure as it stands now, I will present a count for this that is simple and yields us a good target that bears an excellent relationship with the “height” of the GFC.

Most of the notes are on the chart, and should be self-explanatory:


There is wave balance within yellow “a,” within yellow “b” and between yellow “a” and yellow “b,” if we use a triangle (pink “B”) within yellow “b” and if we stop right where we stopped today.

And from here, we can see a thousand point drop for yellow “c.”

[UPDATE]: There is a typo in the chart. Yellow C = 1.618 x Yellow A at 3000, not 2.618.

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