A Few Notes

Selling remains anemic. If they’re not going to sell a negative GDP print and a jobs miss and earnings misses and a hawkish Fed, then I’m not sure what to say. I will make a few comments.

So far, all we have managed to do it to test the trend line from the COVID low from above (green arrow). Not so great for bears. If sellers don’t show up in size soon, then we may look to three places above us (green numbers):

  1. The area of prior consolidation may introduce supply
  2. If not that, then the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the March peak
  3. And if not there, then the trend line way up above us

ES

None of this changes my view that this rally is a bear market rally only; it’s just a matter of when and where I believe, and not if. I’m obviously having a lot of difficulty answering that question with kind of reasonable precision. So, we’ll just have to see where they show up.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


One thought on “A Few Notes”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *