A Few Notes

Selling remains anemic. If they’re not going to sell a negative GDP print and a jobs miss and earnings misses and a hawkish Fed, then I’m not sure what to say. I will make a few comments.

So far, all we have managed to do it to test the trend line from the COVID low from above (green arrow). Not so great for bears. If sellers don’t show up in size soon, then we may look to three places above us (green numbers):

  1. The area of prior consolidation may introduce supply
  2. If not that, then the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the March peak
  3. And if not there, then the trend line way up above us


None of this changes my view that this rally is a bear market rally only; it’s just a matter of when and where I believe, and not if. I’m obviously having a lot of difficulty answering that question with kind of reasonable precision. So, we’ll just have to see where they show up.

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