If the market was genuinely bullish, and in an impulse wave to the upside (an idea explored here), we would expect most stocks to resemble that, and I don’t see it in many places. If we look at Twitter, for example, we would expect it to also be in a 3rd wave to the upside. And I suppose one could try to do it on any instrument if they really wanted to, but when I look at this, here’s what I see.
I see, from the March low, a clear 3-wave advance, followed by a 5-wave decline into July, followed by a 3-wave advance (so far) into today’s close. And it did stop right at equal legs. That relationship will be broken if it gaps up. But, generally speaking, this looks like a 1-2 to the downside, and if futures weren’t ripping, I would expect this to begin the strongest part of its decline, a 3rd wave down, not up. The fibs are all excellent here.
The only other way to do this is to call the July low a truncated low, and to call that the bottom of its bear market. So, let’s see what happens. I would hate to think that the low snuck up on me, but I can’t rule it out while we’re seeing so much strength.
Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.