Good gracious. Well that was dramatic.
Despite the disgusting squeeze, I see no reason yet to expect an alternative to my present view that this will roll over and head to new lows soon.
Using a slight variation of the thought from here (removing the triangle), we have the holy grail of wave balances, 1:1 & 1:1.
So, if this is going to turn down (and stay down), this is another good place for it to do so.
In June (here), I discussed one precondition I would have wanted to see before a big dump and gave an example of one such event from history. I wrote that before I came to the conclusion that we are no where near a Fed pivot and here are we though, and that’s what that sort of felt like today. A big shove to push folks off before a serious decline.
So, if they are going to do that, I would tend to expect it here as much as anywhere else.
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