My goal here right now is to make sure that I’m not being stupid and being bearish in a new bullish trend. The last two times I discussed $MSFT in detail was here and here. This has had a 13% rally since its earnings miss, and let’s review how things look now.
In those prior articles, I discussed the danger it faced were it to fall from this structure and lose its long-term trend line. And nothing really has improved here. Its rally did little but run to the top of its trend line.
And though I’m trying to be cautious and ensure that I’m not missing an entry into a big move to the upside, if I just look at this as honestly as I can, it still just looks terrible to me. It counts well as a correction. Now, down there to yellow “a,” there’s perfect 1:1 wave balance (between the pink waves that compose it). And if that was the whole correction, that would be a wave balance at which it could finish. However, what comes after it, that little triangle down there (see the others I detected here—they’ve all become bigger, but they’re all still valid) is in no universe what I would expect to see at the low.
And so, I’ve just got to insist on that for now. I think there’s got to be another leg down, a big yellow “c” wave. And if this fails, it can see a 40% drop (at least). All of this would be totally different had this created an impulse wave off the low, but it didn’t. And so I just can’t trust it right now.
Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.