I just had a thought. Last one, I swear. I’ve had too much caffeine lol.
But really, I think there’s no way whatsoever that I can entertain a bullish thesis right now. Note the public Adobe chart I just posted. I will repost it here so you don’t have to flip:
Notice the structure it’s in now, a pretty clear triangle. And there’s probably at least a 90% chance a structure like that is going to fail if it’s in a downtrend. Also, notice the sharp decline leading into March. That’s an “A” wave, followed by a triangle, which is effectively a 5-swing (A-B-C-D-E) move. I find that very interesting because we can do the exact same thing—in essence—on the S&P as well, and many stocks. Even though we can’t derive an actual triangle because the waves don’t line up like one (which is why I haven’t seen until now), look how many swings there on the S&P.
If I label the S&P in the same way and with the same degrees as I did on Adobe, it’s all the same sausage, no matter how you slice it:
So these are all effectively the same number of swings, just with different magnitudes. And there’s virtually no way Adobe’s can rally from a structure like that, and so everything’s going to fail here. In essence, I think the S&P 500 just completed or is completing the last leg of a triangle-like move, 5-swings.
We’re cooked and I feel strongly convicted about this now. It’s all just been very stealthy and ugly, but this clarifies matters greatly.
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