Now, I’m getting trolled a bit for being bearish while we have this squeeze, and I know that looks silly, and a lot of people like to think of me as often wanting to be bearish for the sake of it or something. But, really, it’s these structures. I’ve been bullish most of my life. You guys only know me from after the COVID crash when I started using social media. And yes, I was way too bearish there, but I had good reasons: they had just annihilated the world economy—so it seemed to me, and to many—and it didn’t feel like that had been priced in completely. And I didn’t give infinity QE enough credit. So, yes, I thought the rally out of that low was bound to fail. But don’t forget that I changed my mind and was bullish for most of 2021, and correctly so. I think it’s unfair to think of me as always wanting to be bearish.
And right now, things are very, very different. There’s just no way for me to interpret the Fed as being friendly right now. Earlier in the year, I was more open to a quick, one-and-done correction, at least in principle, but as these structures have become larger, there’s no good way to do that, so far as I can see right now.
And just look at this chart. It’s absolutely terrible. The structure it’s in right now is an awful one, and these very often fail.
So at any rate, a whole ton of things look like this and I think it’s not good. A lot of things can still get cut in half from here.
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