This article is intended to complement the last one I just wrote.
When we look at a structure like this, it’s very difficult to accept it readily as an impulse wave. You can try, but it’s difficult. I’ve taken stabs at that before (such as here). But this doesn’t really look good, and lacks good impulse wave-like fibs.
That said, just at a glance, what does it look like? To me, it looks prima facie just like a 3-wave move, like this:
And where it gets interesting is when we throw some fibs on here, treating it as a 3-wave move:
Now, to save your eyes, let’s zoom way in:
It doesn’t get any cleaner than that, folks. What a perfect strike.
My point is this: if we do, in fact, have a 35-year, 3-wave structure complete, then yeah, what has been normal for us for a very long time is about to not be that anymore.
So do you see what I mean when I suggested in the last post that the degree of structure we may have just entered might be something stupendous? Of course it doesn’t mean this is going to go to zero (it can’t, it’s too big and software will be in our lives forever). But, it can retrace a lot. And for a long time.
I don’t know yet what it’s going to do, but something like this is on the table:
The last period similar (leading from light blue “a” to light blue “b”) was sort of like this proposed big red “B,” and it, too retraced to 78.6% of its prior advance, so that’s possible here as well. But this could take forever. In the short-term it could absolutely move a lot, but it may go flattish for years and years, perhaps a re-accumulation. the last time it did this, it went sideways for 15 years. Haha fuck your calls and your puts lol
We may end up having sort of two biggish bear markets, much like the 2000-2009 down, up/sideways-ish then down period.
So, the takeaway is this: we may have entered a humongously new structure, part of which may become stupidly boring and dull for many stocks. There will be premium selling opportunities in abundance lol. We’ll all be selling LEAPs before this is over and I will be writing an article once a month haha.
I only point this out because it is in line with what I suspect might be happening in the degree of structure of the S&P and the regime we’re entering could be entirely new and different for a while.
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