A Look at the Futures Puke

There is now an overlap on the futures market between this low and the 6/28 high. We would account for this by utilizing this count instead, but this is contingent upon the market becoming bullish, which I don’t know for certain whether it will, though I continue to favor the view.

It seems to me that someone is being liquidated tonight. Strange for them to sell before the Asia session even opens. So someone is being forced to capitulate (unless Russia invaded Alaska and I missed it).

If this is a capitulation low (which seems likely to me), then the whole structure can be a 1-2 of cycle (yellow) degree:


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$SPX Update, No Real Changes

With a slight recount, I have good fibs at today’s low. I would like to see a rally from here.

Ideally what I would like to see is depicted by the speculative path below. I would like to see a rally back to the neckline that—by the time we get to it—only looks to be in 3 waves. That could be the orange 1-2, followed by the green 1, for instance. A pullback into a close up there would be beautiful, setting the stage for what will look like an a-b-c up, to be followed by a crash, but will instead be, as I believe, the nesting leading to a 3rd of a 3rd to the upside (for the green 3):


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I Am Inclined to Be Exceptionally Bullish Here: This Is Why

I expected the rally to fail, and that worked. And during that failure, I became somewhat agnostic because the drop hasn’t been entirely as I would have liked it to be for the bearish case. And because of that I have given close to equal weight to both bearish and bullish outcomes, but I now think I have enough information to hold a conviction.

And that conviction is bullish.

I detailed some of my initial thoughts here, and I will discuss a few more now. To summarize some of my prior thoughts, I wanted to see the meat of the move lower blast through 4000, but the meaty part of the move happened way too high, spending all of the fuel. And so here we are, having reached seller exhaustion, mere points below that level, and just barely under the 50-day SMA. That’s not a great sign, I don’t think. Because we are now due for a very big rally, and that will mean that we will have found support on 4000 and the 50-day SMA. And that is largely fatal to the bearish case.

So here we are, with a 5-wave pattern, probably now complete. It’s much clearer on futures, so I’ll use that to demonstrate it:


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A Count Variation for $SPX

I posted this as a thought before, but I can’t immediately find the post (it wasn’t long ago). If I find it, I will place a link.

I am not yet convinced that we won’t have a stronger reaction to the 4000 area and the 50-day SMA. We may count “Wave 4” as completing here. Doing it this way gives us a different slope to the channel (because it’s based on the top of “3”) and we’re challenging this channel now, which wave fours typically do.


I’m not yet in the mood to get too bearish.