A Glance at $COST

I last wrote about Costco here and here. I expected a strong decline, and got a powerful rally to new all-time highs instead (when the S&P did not), only to then get quite the powerful decline I had been expecting. It has created a wild and violent structure.

As things stand now, there are a few things I can say:

  • At the actual high in price, there are terrific long-term fibs (from inception) that all touch up there (purple and yellow “c-waves.”) This jives well with the excellent long-term fib strikes on other stocks, such as Microsoft (here).
  • That said, if we begin to count the decent from that all-time high, I don’t have much, as I don’t see good fibs from there on the way down.
  • Rather, there are good fibs if I begin counting down from the high it made when the S&P 500 topped at the end of last year (creating the good A-B-C in green that composes orange A).
  • In any case, it’s making something of a “diamond.”
  • If it is in line with the bearish proposals made on the indices, it may be in a B-wave now (Orange). I can see two fibs just above us (orange lines).
  • If we stop around here, I would look for a descent for orange C (of Pink A).
  • If we keep going up, then I will need to wait until further structure develops before I can better understand the structure.


[UPDATE]: In the chart, there is a typo in the little bubble at the top. It should say “Purple c = 9.618 x a”

Those fibs refer to structure on the longest time-frame possible:


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