Let’s Revisit $TLT

My last post on $TLT was here. In that post, I was looking for a reaction (and perhaps a long-term low) at the equal legs fib for cycle (yellow) c (of purple b). And fortunately, we did get that (at least so far). Touching that fib has produced the largest rally in this instrument since May 2021.

Now, if it was a near-permanent low, I would prefer to see an impulse wave off of that low (and it doesn’t look like one so far), but it’s not a hard requirement because the long-term upward-sloping count also seems to me to be a corrective pattern. From here, given the importance of that fib, and the divergence that occurred at the low on the daily RSI, I would expect that low to hold at least for a while more (weeks and perhaps months).

One potential target is the 250-day EMA (projected by the green line), the slope of which should begin to flatten as bonds move up more. So, I would to like to see it get to there before trying to reassess things at that point.


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