I continue to anticipate this outline and am open to things getting dicey at any moment. If a dirty, mean old bear put a gun to my head and made me justify a top today, here is how I would do it.
1. Though we’re a little off regarding fibs given in the “Roadmap” (we’re not quite high enough using those labels), an adjustment can improve this. By moving Green A to a prior high, more in line with the high made on the futures market, we came within 7 points of a fib strike today, and that is good enough. Also, if we’re repeating the dot-com bear market fractal, the S&P 500 came close to the 250-day EMA, but didn’t quite touch it at this point in that fractal. About as close as we did today.
2. The $VIX remains within its big ‘ol red wedge, made a double bottom as it did before (green arrows), and this time even made a local higher low, while the indices obviously made a higher high. A good divergence bears would welcome.
3. Oil has now lost its 250-day EMA today, and if we’re set for a big move down, oil tends to do so with equities in a general risk off way.
So we have ingredients we would need. Now let’s see if a cake gets made.
Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.