Three Quick Thoughts

I continue to anticipate this outline and am open to things getting dicey at any moment. If a dirty, mean old bear put a gun to my head and made me justify a top today, here is how I would do it.

1. Though we’re a little off regarding fibs given in the “Roadmap” (we’re not quite high enough using those labels), an adjustment can improve this. By moving Green A to a prior high, more in line with the high made on the futures market, we came within 7 points of a fib strike today, and that is good enough. Also, if we’re repeating the dot-com bear market fractal, the S&P 500 came close to the 250-day EMA, but didn’t quite touch it at this point in that fractal. About as close as we did today.

SPX

2. The $VIX remains within its big ‘ol red wedge, made a double bottom as it did before (green arrows), and this time even made a local higher low, while the indices obviously made a higher high. A good divergence bears would welcome.

VIX

3. Oil has now lost its 250-day EMA today, and if we’re set for a big move down, oil tends to do so with equities in a general risk off way.

OIL

So we have ingredients we would need. Now let’s see if a cake gets made.


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