One More Push?

Given the possibility mentioned here, which still looks good, I am prepared to see one more push.

If we do, my beautiful fibs will look good both here and on the way down. Piercing the 250-day EMA, I will even accept at this point (poking us through it to 4227) because of that huge jobs beat: now we know the Fed won’t be pivoting any time soon as they are using the jobs market as their pressure gauge, GDP be damned (that’s why someone big got out this morning). For the time being, I will only become concerned about the bullish case (here) if we see at least two consecutive closes above the EMA (we could gap and crap on Monday for all I know, and that won’t be of any concern if we do).

  • From that high, a move to the bottom of the orange box should be “Green 1” which coincides with the 61.8% retracement of this entire advance; this also coincides with the “technical bear market” level
  • From that low, a rally to 4000 (before I thought it could mash through it, but I now think it will become overhead resistance) for “Green 2” will be a 38.2% retracement of the decline, to the tick
  • A drop through the 250-week EMA will give us a good fib for “Green 3”
  • And if “Green 4” decays (“bullish” wedge down there perhaps?) then “Green 5” will have equality with “Green 1” at the very very important level of 3045 where two long-term levels match on the nose down there

SPX

People should pile in at Green 1 because it’s the ideal retracement for bulls to do it at, and sitting at that point in time, a lot of people will see an inverse that looks like this:

SPX

Have a nice weekend everyone, and get ready to deliver a baby early next week lol


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