The Mile-High View on $IBM: What a Stagflationary Decade Will Look Like From Here

My last post on $IBM was here. Written before the realities of inflation were fully upon us, I was open at the time to a continuation of the bull market.

Since then, a powerful rally has not emerged, and so let’s take a look at the very long-term picture.

From the 1960s, a beautiful 5-wave advance is apparent. Everything counts well as an impulse wave. Tip top. I believe the fifth cycle (yellow) wave is truncated at the April 2014 high (because of both the available waves up there and the fibs available to us up there).

This count suggests that we have been correcting the 50-year advance since those highs, and we shouldn’t expect this to finish any time too soon. Cycle (yellow) 2 took 50% as long as cycle (yellow) 1 to complete, and whatever this larger correction is, it may also take 50% as long to correct, which may take us into the 2030s. I have noted one possible eventual target for cycle (yellow) c (the 78.6% retracement of the entire advance)


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