High Probability the Top Is In

I apologize for the flurry of posts this morning. The gap up broke my most anticipated fib expectations. A small gap would have been ok, that gap was too much.

The flurry of posts was me moving quickly to try to reassess on the fly. In the meantime, we have produced an excellent impulse wave off the high. That increases the chances that the high is in. There were a handful of internal vs. external fib relationships that I’ve been trying to grope towards solving, and no one solution solved each problem. And we have to get that right while we’re up here in order to reduce the risk of being off by hundreds of points at the low.

So, here’s a preview of what I’ve now found. I will walk through it this evening in detail, especially if today’s price action continues to confirm my expectations here.

In a nutshell, given the fib problems I’ve had, much of the old basic count could have been wrong. I was expecting it all to be one big A-B with a C to come, given the size of this rally. However, there is a fantastic way to give us a nest of A’s and B’s instead. There is a really good relationship both at today’s high and at an expected low.

As noted, I will walk through this tonight when I have a bit more time, but so long as today’s high holds, this is my expectation (you’ll note that Orange C is a little higher than first expected in the “Roadmap“), but I think we are still going to enjoy a thousand-point plunge:

SPX

As always, it should be understood that if today’s high is breached, this will be called into question.

This process has been infuriating, and I’m sorry about that. If we are going to head much lower, they’re hellbent on making it as difficult as possible to enjoy it.

The key here for the moment is: we need today’s high to hold. And if so, I’ll walk through why this nest of A’s and B’s works so well from all angles tonight.


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