Some Comments on $SPX

I was expecting a stronger open while we complete what I believe is the 5th minute (blue) wave (of Orange C, etc.). There are better fibs above us, we seemed to be in between a lot of fibs at the close, and a rally into the close on a Friday often sees followthrough with a gap on Mondays. Instead, we’ve seen this gap down and recovery. This complicates things a little.

For one, we now have an overlap between Thursday’s high and this morning’s open:

SPX

So it could be that we’re in an ending diagonal (in those, there must be an overlap) between wave 1 & 4 of the diagonal (orange count in the chart below).

I was also expecting blue 5 to go the 78.6% extension of blue 1, but we are at a shorter fib, the 61.8% now, so that may be good enough:

SPX

So, I’m not sure if I can find external wave balance here, but we at least have internal wave balance, so this structure may be completing. As a precaution, I have cut loose all the call sides of my strangles, and am just in puts now. We might still go up, but I will try to suffer through it if we do. This may turn lower sooner than I expected, so let’s see.

I will continue to look for external wave balance today, which I don’t immediately see here yet.


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