$SPX Update

If we label the structure as I have below (with Orange A and Orange B at the places pointed to by the green arrows), interpreting the structure at the low as an actual triangle—which we may do—then there was wave balance right at today’s high:


And though the diagonal no longer seems appropriate on the cash session (here), it looks quite excellent on futures and there is excellent divergence at the high as well:


So, if the damn thing will stop going up, we can justify a major top in place.

I want to make one additional comment. It is to be understood that bear market rallies can be tremendous. That said, this is becoming perhaps too big for my liking. This will be forgiven if we turn down sharply, otherwise, we need to take some things into account. I have already discussed how prior bear markets did not find support on the moving averages I discussed here (which we have done), and there is another thing, now, too. The daily RSI has reached actual overbought levels in this rally now. And that, too, has never happened at least in the bear markets over the last twenty years. This rally has a lot of momentum—even for a bear market rally.

In past bear markets at least in our lifetimes, the RSI always stayed below 70, but it’s above that now. So, if this a bear market rally, it’s unique: finding support on these moving averages and getting this overbought.

So, if we do get a pullback, and head to the orange box in the first chart above, but don’t ever get below that, we should be prepared to accept that the lows are in.

If this is a bear market rally, it needs to start acting like one instead of a bull market rally.

I like that Bitcoin has done basically nothing during this rally; I like that oil was so weak today. So, gawdamn, let’s go if we’re going to go.

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