One More S&P 500 Comment

I will make one additional comment. I would like to see us reach a better fib below before believing the 3rd wave is complete (noted here). I will share one observation regarding that. If we do get there, it will be three waves. If we’re in an impulse down, we should see five, so if one were bearish, one would expect one more low after that.

However, if it’s a trap, and this is a 3-wave move only, I will note that that 2.618 level discussed in the last article coincides exactly with the lower of two resistance lines from the old hypothetical “Wyckoff Accumulation” schematic I have been tracking (green arrow):

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I find that worth mentioning. So, I expect a 4th green wave. And it should challenge the channel we’re in (from the last article), before failing. However, if we break out of that channel, and move up more aggressively than expected, it becomes possible that this move off the 8/16 was a pullback in a greater bullish trend still. So, we should watch what it does with some care.

And I want to bring this thought up now because I’m not yet certain that I fully understand the structure of this decline and if I see reason to flip bullish in the coming days, I want to be able to refer to this thought and I don’t want that to come across as too abrupt to my readers.

The macro environment still seems grim, but with Jackson Hole coming up, who knows how the market will react. And so I do want to remain open to all possibilities.

I love them all dearly, but the bears on Twitter are infinitely arrogant right now (maybe with good reason), but that is putting the fear of God into me, lol


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