There is now an overlap on the futures market between this low and the 6/28 high. We would account for this by utilizing this count instead, but this is contingent upon the market becoming bullish, which I don’t know for certain whether it will, though I continue to favor the view.
It seems to me that someone is being liquidated tonight. Strange for them to sell before the Asia session even opens. So someone is being forced to capitulate (unless Russia invaded Alaska and I missed it).
If this is a capitulation low (which seems likely to me), then the whole structure can be a 1-2 of cycle (yellow) degree:
This will not make too much of a difference between this and my main cash session count, as on that count, I am expecting an extended fifth, and if futures embark on a 3rd cycle wave, they will look about the same (an extended 5th resembles a normal 3rd wave).
Zooming in to the local structure, it looks very good as an ending diagonal:
This is effectively a bullish wedge if it doesn’t break down.
Each segment looks like 3-wave moves, and there is an overlap between orange 1 and orange 4. These can “underthrow,” so if it goes a little lower but then reverses hard and moves up overnight, the move should be complete.
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