Public Post: The Rout in Bonds Is Probably Over: A Look at $TLT

In my last post on $TLT (here), I expected a low to be forming because of the wave balance that was present at the low that was formed in June. Ironically, and to my great embarrassment, that post marked the top of the rally, and we have since had another decline. So let’s look again.

That wave balance was so perfect, that it was strong evidence, but it was predicated on the start of the whole yellow a-b-c count having its origin at the top of the COVID crash peak (which I’ve marked with an orange box in the chart below).

tlt

Looking at it this way, with an alternative high, makes it almost impossible for me to not see the structure as now complete. It’s clearly a large 3-wave decline, and it counts internally well in the course of the yellow “c.” And, while there are great fibs within yellow “c,” there is not a relationship between yellow “a” and yellow “c” if we use the COVID spike as the origin of yellow “a” which i had tried to use before.

However, by using the August of 2020 high as the origin, there is now wave balance between the yellow “a” and “c” waves, and that all coincides with balance between the pink waves that make up yellow “c,” too. And so this is a terrific spot for bonds to have finally bottomed.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Public Chart: The Long-Term Look at Bitcoin

I don’t personally have any attachment to crypto. I don’t think it’s the future of the financial system or anything like that, per se. Personally, I think it’s a speculative asset that has a remarkable way of reflecting liquidity in the markets. And so I watch its structure in an effort to help me to influence my bias in a way that may favor the future direction of liquidity.

So let’s take a look at it, from inception.

From the very beginning, I think we can see a very clear 5-wave advance with excellent fibs up, down and sideways:

BTC

Read more “Public Chart: The Long-Term Look at Bitcoin”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.