We had a wall into the close, and though those can often gap up the next day, the exception to that rule is Fridays. Those more commonly see followthrough on the Mondays that follow them. I’ve been rooting for the bulls because of my sheer disgust for crowded trades, but something troubling has happened in the last 24 hours. Most of the bears I follow who were looking for a deep dive just a few days ago, are now looking for this to be the final leg of something. Like just a few points below us should be the end of some “3” or something. I suddenly don’t actually see a lot of folks looking for a deep plunge, and the opposite was true just a short while ago.
I suspect I know why. When most were trying to count the structure as a super nest of ones and twos and ones and twos, looking for the 3rd of the 3rd, they got tripped up and slapped around by this thing that does, in fact, look like a triangle (green structure in the chart below). And having taken a bruising in that structure, they now think that was a “4,” and we’ve entered a “5” (of something—their respective analyses are all a little different). And in this case, wave 3 isn’t very big, which means wave 5 shouldn’t be very big, and it’s already getting big, so they must be concluding that we’re about done here: