And One More Look at the Possible Triangle

I had been originally anticipating a triangle (here) and as we all know, I chickened out of that given the lack of an overnight failure. And since then, I have discussed the bullish potential (here).

But, looking at futures, and accepting the many uncertainties revolving around Powell The Destroyer (who speaks tomorrow), can we still have a triangle? And I suppose, yes, it’s possible. If we do, it would look like this:

ES

It doesn’t break any rules to develop a structure like this. It is more common given the placement of the pink A to get a much steeper lower trend line (which is what I had been expecting), like this:

ES

Normally those first two lows get connected like this. But, obviously, that didn’t play out. I suppose that if we do end up getting a catastrophic failure tomorrow, I would be inclined to count the structure like this.

So, let’s see what happens. I wish I had a way in advance to know what he was going to say, and how the market would digest it.

I think what I will do is this, if we end up opening high, I think I will close the calls I took this morning, close the bull put spread I opened this morning, and simply strangle the market again.

Everything hinges on 4000 and I don’t know in advance what we’re going to do if we get there, to be honest. I lack a long-term count that I know is right. I can guess at some, but I can’t marry any of them. Above 4000, I’ll be fairly confident that we’ll see more upside, near or below it, I think I will remain cautious. I think that’s the only thing I can do for now.


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