In the last article, I said, “I have been considering a larger triangle (here), which is especially visible on the futures, but the Globex session tonight gapped up above the upper trend line of that, and we’re now pressing through the 50-day SMA, too.”
That requires some elaboration. I didn’t realize at the time that I wrote that that TradingView’s continuous contract ticker “ES1!” had already rolled to the December contract (early). At the time that I wrote that, the chart looked as below. It’s a big gap, and looked to me like this:
This led me to believe that the big triangle idea had lost some probability, with us breaching that and pushing through the 50-day SMA like that.
But, the September contract is nothing as strong as this, and I didn’t realize that at first. It still looks like this:
Triangle is still intact. Trend line is still resistance. 50-day SMA is still resistance.
So, this triangle idea is still completely on the table here, and I just wanted to be clear about that.
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