One More Look at the Triangle

I have been pondering the triangle idea the whole time we’ve been down here, and it’s still on the table. The super harsh rejection at 4000, without us even being able to touch the 50-SMA leaves this as an open possibility.

IF we do fail more, especially if we break the orange trend line (that has supported us), we may just be doing the stupidly obvious thing of repeating a similar structure that we saw in May, and I wanted to back out and show that from afar (green arrow):

ES

You can see how they are similar forms of consolidation. The key here for me is: it’s very bearish to get under and stay under the orange trend line (we do that, and you’ll notice that we’re right back in “technical bear market” territory). But, above 4000 could be very bullish, and if we surprise rally back up there, I would expect continuation.

So, I’m comfortable holding a strangle here. I’ll make more if we go down, so let’s do that, lol. But I know that we’re bearish enough that it’s possible for us to go up, too. So, let’s see what we do.

[Mostly ignore where I’ve put the yellow c on this chart, there are lots of places it can go, and that’s just one and is not a projection per se].


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