And One More Brief Look at the Most Local Count

Let me reiterate a problem. It’s not clear to me how to count the decline precisely. And let me show why.

The count to the orange 1 up there (green arrow) is quite excellent. That part I have utmost confidence in (that’s the truncated low we dealt with before). Very good fibs. But given that, from there, to the orange 2 and then down again, and we have shitty fibs everywhere. I’ve highlighted the gaps with the orange boxes—no good strikes:

SPX

That said, we do have one great strike at the lowest low (red arrow). That inclines me to believe that that is where the first whole structure should end. But, if that’s the end, then we don’t have a flat (the orange A-B-C leading to the pink 2), as we’ve now just cut off the orange A and B.

But, I only just noticed something that made the bear in me jump with joy lol. I do need to have a count justification to believe the top of the rally is in, and so let me show you this.

In order for this rally to be “done,” we need a 3-wave advance with good fibs. And if we just get rid of the triangle altogether, and use the actual low from 9/6 as the low (because of the good fib down there noted in the chart above that we just discussed), we can actually count this as a beautiful 5-3-5 zig-zag with an absolutely textbook ideal 1:1 relationship right at today’s high (green arrow):

SPX

That’s actually very heartening to the dark bear inside me who controls my soul. We have a very strong, impulsive decline off the August high, followed by a sharp zig-zag corrective rally with perfect equal legs. And that is a perfect recipe for a 1-2. (Bwahahahaha). Zig-zags are the most expected corrective rally for twos.

If this plays out, it’s going to be a real doozy. I make no promises, but, boy this suddenly looks very textbook to me.


[EDIT:] I’ve gone and double-checked the internal fibs on this, too. And it all looks great. Good wave balance all the way up. It could be done, and it could be a 2.

SPX


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