One Morning Thought on the S&P

We have gapped over the 50-day SMA and are well above 4000. Bitcoin has even mooned. Normally, I would suck it up and adopt a bullish bias, and that’s been my plan. But there’s still just enough uncertainty and I’m not going to adopt that bias just yet.

We can go up a lot higher, I will grant. We can go to the level discussed last night (green arrow) or even much higher than that. But there’s still the possibility that is a flat, as I have it labeled here, where the pink B can finish a lot sooner. Because I’m not sure, and because the call side of my strangle went up so much, I dumped that call side and rolled the put side to closer strikes, and my gut tells me to hold those for now. So, I’m just in puts for a bit. My gut can be wrong. But I just want to see some more structure first.

I know everyone wants to short that green trend line. So maybe we go a lot higher than that, maybe we don’t even get there. I don’t know. I’m more comfortable holding the puts for now (but that’s just my personal view for the moment). The call side went up enough, that I would rather take the profits from those for now.

SPX


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