The last thing I want to look at this weekend is Bitcoin.
On the one hand, we may view this as a failed breakdown from this big bear flag, constructed from parallel rails:
We dropped out of it, but then jumped right back into it. And under normal circumstances, this would be pretty bullish.
But on the other hand, the decline to what I have labelled as “Green 1” is very severe and looks impulsive. And the parallel rails don’t look very good because it doesn’t capture a lot of the price action.
So if we draw a bearish wedge instead, it looks much more dreadful:
Drawing the structure this way makes it look much more like a retest after a genuine breakdown.
So, a drop from here would be very bad. The typical extension for a wave 3 down (if this is a Green 2 we’re at now) could carry this to $10,700 (or lower). Yikes.
I don’t know if it’s going to break down. But if it does, trouble is afoot.
Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.