$SPX, Local Intraday Count

Bulls have everything they need here to take us higher. We’re over the 50-day SMA, we’re over 4000, we’ve broken the local down trend line (futures have not yet, but they’re right at it now and may do so at any moment).

That said, I am back to leaning to the view that the structure we were in yesterday was a triangle. Those can happen in “B-Waves” and in “4th waves.” And if they’re in a 4th wave, they need to be preceded by a strong 3rd wave and they need to have the right “look.” That is to say, they shouldn’t be too “big” compared to the rally that led to them.

And this, as a triangle, does look too “big” to be a 4th wave triangle. And so I am inclined to think this is a “B-Wave” (which are typically large). I also don’t like that JNK is so weak today (way back down in its gap).

So, I am inclined to believe this rally will fail. It may go as high as 4082 where it will find wave equality. But there are enough waves in place to be complete at any time.


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