A Janky $SPX Count

This is ugly, but the only way (so far) that I can find balance here is with a count that looks a little contrived. It involves placing yellow “a” at an offset low, and it involves making pink B of yellow “c” a triangle (a thought that I have entertained before). It works, it’s not pretty. But if we stage a recovery, I would use this.


Why so stubborn? One, I take the volume spike with great seriousness.

Other things. The dollar has the potential right here right now to put in a multi-month, maybe even multi-year high. We are facing divergence on the weekly at major trend line resistance:


Zoomed in:


If this firmly rejects, it means something.

Also, the 10-year yield is at its prior high, and if it’s a double top, then a major shift in market forces may be coming:


Stocks have been bearish as yields rise, stocks might get very bullish if yields fall.

And so, if the dollar and bonds are going to make major, long-term turns, then it’s not unreasonable to expect equities to make a long-term turn. And so hence looking for a count that can put in a major turn.

There may be other ways to count the S&P more elegantly, which I would prefer to be able to do, so I will keep looking.

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