$SPX Local Count Discussion

So, hmm.

I have tried multiple times to count this decline as an impulse wave. And I can’t seem to do it easily. We can see a clear five waves down (in green) for either Orange “A” or Red “1.” That seems to be one structure. Then we went sideways, and that could be a “2,” or a “B” (as I have it labeled). From there, we’ve gone down again, and possibly have another five waves complete. That could be either “C” or “3.”

So we are left with two choices. If we stop here (and we may not, we may need to go to an lower fib still in this “C” or “3,” we may have a 3-wave decline complete (Orange A-B-C). But this could also be a 1-2-3, and we still need a 4 and a 5. So: if we rally above the low at Orange A (3921.28), it has to be a 3-wave move. If we consolidate below that low, we may make another low still, and if we do that, we will have extension in “1,” a shorter “3,” and we shouldn’t have a very big “5.”

SPX


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