$SPX Cash Update

Fears that Putin is about to fully mobilize his armed forces is causing everyone to rush to the exits.

Having broken prior lows, we are unable to continue the bullish count, and must begin the process of looking for the low again. We remain in a constructive structure (the large red wedge), and I see one reasonable fib below us at 3811 that would involve a pierce of the structure:


This can all of course get much worse, and I can’t really know how low it could go if it does (3700 is possible if the structure fails). But, since this has become a news-related selloff, I am still hopeful regarding the ultimately bullish idea: oftentimes, news-related selloffs are quickly reversed. And for all we know, Putin isn’t going to mobilize, but fold instead. I honestly don’t think he has the political capital to mobilize, but we will have to see, as he’s hinged everything on the outcome of the war, and he may act out of desperation.

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