Let Me Try One More Time

Almost immediately after I posted the last article we went on to break those lows. And now things look terrible.

We did close right at a new fib:

SPX

And this is okay if we’re “underthrowing” this bullish wedge, but any lower and it’s just a failure, or we’re producing parallel rails (and not contracting rails). A majority of analysts that I follow (and it’s a whole lot) expected us to be entering a 3rd wave decline, and this looks like that, so I am hopeful that because it looks like it, it’s not it.

  • We had a wall into the close, and that’s usually not good, as those can be reversed
  • We are at a fib, so a structure may be complete here
  • We closed two gaps today (congrats to member Phil who kept insisting that we would)
  • The VIX spike caused it to produce a buy signal on the daily, by having pierced out of its Bollinger Band, but then by closing back inside of it
  • Bitcoin has not bothered to take out prior lows

This is either a huge bear trap, or I’m dead wrong here and we are in a crash. It seemed to me that Powell did just as expected, so I’m hopeful that this is an overreaction and that stronger hands will take over from here.

I will have some breadth data later tonight (the data is delayed) that I will share in the chat room to see if that gives us any additional insights.


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