Well That Was Scary

This morning I had hoped the low was in, as I could see an impulse wave to the upside. But, with the Fed whipsaw, we once again took out a prior low. That low can be counted as the low, as follows:

SPX

We remain in the large bullish wedge, and if we can muster a rally, the target for Green 3 happens to also be a retest of the (orange( trend line from which we recently broken down.

Zooming in to the structure, we may count it like this:

SPX

We do—yet again—see a 5-wave advance off the low. I would like to see that low stick, but anything remains possible until we rally out of this lower range we’ve been in for days now.

Yields had a tremendous spike today, and any further declines from here may signal that the interminable uptrend it has been in may finally be over, as this may produce a nice spike daily candle:

10YRYLD

And the dollar poked above its large bearish wedge, and so a failure here can signal a major turn in the markets:

DXY

Still much can happen here, and until we see a big rally, there is risk of equities continuing to sell. So, let’s see what happens.


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