$SPX Level to Take Note Of

The long-term balance discussed last night won’t work, but I think are others that I may use. The short-term balance also discussed last night also doesn’t work with these fresh lows.

I will re-investigate the long-term count later on. But for now, let’s look at this relationship we’re at now:


If we see a reversal here, it’s a great fib at which to do so.

There’s not a lot I can do here until we reverse. I don’t have any interest in selling this, as a reversal—if it does come—can be vicious, even though it’s possible for us to keep going lower. I have enough data in hand that all points to a low being put it, which I will summarize:

  • The dollar is in a macro topping pattern. If it plays out (it might not), it’s pointing to a multi-month (or even multi-year) reversal
  • Breadth is not confirming this leg of the decline
  • Volume is not confirming this leg of the decline
  • Crypto is not confirming the leg of the decline
  • Sentiment is not at all supportive to the bearish case

These are all simply facts, and I accept them.

So, despite new lows, I’m not interested in looking lower, though it’s possible that we do go lower. I continue to expect a low soon.

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